That's why Ukraine and Europe are so concerned about reports of a new peace plan being drawn up without them.

Their fears appear to be well-founded. The plan's proposals reportedly include two major concessions for Kyiv - that it must give up territory in the Donbas which Russia has not yet seized, and that it must dramatically reduce its armed forces.

Ukraine war latest: Trump 'approves 28-point Ukraine peace plan'

Sound familiar? That's because it is. These are two of Vladimir Putin's long-held, key demands for peace.

The 'new' peace plan represents the latest about-turn from the Trump administration on how it approaches the conflict.

After the failure of the Alaska summit, and last month's fractious phone call between Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and US secretary of state Marco Rubio (which led to the cancellation of a second summit in Budapest and US sanctions on Russian oil), it seemed like Ukraine had finally convinced Donald Trump to change tack.

Instead of showing Moscow patience, he began applying pressure in the hope of forcing Russia to make concessions and to meet Ukraine somewhere in the middle.

But now it's all change once again.

The key player seems to have been Kirill Dmitriev - the Kremlin's investment envoy and a close ally of Vladimir Putin - who has operated as Steve Witkoff's opposite number in peace negotiations.

Whenever the US special envoy has been in Moscow this year, Dmitriev has always been close by. He is Putin's Witkoff whisperer.

After the Lavrov-Rubio bust-up, Dmitriev was sent to Miami to supposedly patch things up through Witkoff. He did more than, it seems.

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What's reportedly emerged from their discussions is a 28-point peace plan that has been signed off by Donald Trump.

Will Ukraine go for it? I very much doubt it.

If the reports are correct, the US-Russia proposals merely represent the Kremlin's long-held demands, and Ukraine's long-held red lines. For Kyiv, it's a non-starter.

But President Zelenskyy will have to tread carefully. Failure to show engagement could rile Donald Trump and trigger an ultimatum - accept this plan or you're on your own.

Mircea Marian Cumpanasoiu, 38, led a network which raped, drugged and exploited vulnerable local women in Dundee.

But Sky News can exclusively reveal that in summer 2024, while in custody at HMP Perth awaiting trial for serial sex offences, officials handed him a "voluntary return" form under a government scheme paying foreign nationals to leave Britain.

The department later decided not to remove him because of the upcoming court proceedings.

Immigration status renewed during trial

In another twist, just months later - as he stood in a High Court dock facing 10 rape charges - Sky News has discovered Cumpanasoiu's immigration status, which was due to expire, was automatically renewed under the EU settlement scheme.

Cumpanasoiu was later handed a 24-year extended sentence, with 20 years in jail and four on licence, for sexual and trafficking offences.

Prosecutors described him as a "winking, smirking pimp" who once filmed a victim climbing a tree to escape his anger when she "failed" to make enough money in Dundee brothels.

Following days of questions from Sky News, officials have confirmed his settled status has now been revoked.

The inside story

Sky sources say Home Office workers personally met Cumpanasoiu at Perth prison while he was on remand in August 2024.

Sources say he "expressed a desire to return home" and was handed documents to sign agreeing to a cash-assisted return, but the plan was later blocked.

But in another twist, on 2 December 2024, halfway through the grooming gang trial, his EU settled status was renewed.

A source close to proceedings told Sky News the revelations "smack of incompetence".

Rape Crisis Scotland said the case raises concerns.

A spokesperson for the charity said: "This was a horrific case, which involved numerous vulnerable survivors who showed tremendous strength and courage by coming forward to seek justice for what had happened to them.

"The severity of this case has, quite rightly, resulted in significant prison sentences for the perpetrators. However, it is not clear why the Home Office tried to intervene before a trial had begun, and any verdict had been reached.

"Survivors must have faith in the criminal justice process and its ability to hold perpetrators accountable for their crimes.

"This incident raises questions about what the Home Office's intentions were, and why it was able to insert itself into active criminal proceedings in the first place."

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What is the EU Settlement Scheme?

The EU Settlement Scheme was set up after Brexit to allow citizens from the EU, and their family members, to continue living and working in the UK.

People with "settled status" can stay in the UK indefinitely.

Those with "pre-settled status", such as Cumpanasoiu, must reapply after five years.

Since September 2023, the Home Office has introduced automatic extensions of pre-settled status which means renewals happen electronically unless officials intervene.

There are questions now about whether this automation can lead to offenders such as Cumpanasoiu being overlooked.

Home Office 'had power to intervene'

Jen Ang, a human rights lawyer and leading expert on migrants' rights, told Sky News the vast majority of those processed under the EU system are law-abiding citizens.

But Ms Ang, a professor at the University of Glasgow, reveals authorities did have the power to intervene in this case.

She said: "In this case the Home Office did have the power and the right to stop the automatic renewal. At any point where it is possible that someone is about to become unsuitable for settled status, the Home Office could have intervened.

"The optics of this in the context of such a high-profile and horrific crime are not great."

'The public are entitled to be concerned'

Thomas Leonard Ross KC, a leading Scottish defence lawyer, described the decision-making as "flawed".

He said: "I mean automatically renewing pre-settled status in 99.9% of occasions can be done without any risk to the public. But clearly this particular individual has been assessed to be an extremely dangerous person.

"The public are perfectly entitled to be concerned. A decision of this type made automatically without any assessment as to the risk that he might pose is clearly a flawed decision."

A Home Office spokesman said: "This man will serve his sentence for the abhorrent crimes he committed and will be considered for deportation at the earliest opportunity.

"A deportation order will automatically trigger the revocation of an individual's right to be in the UK, including pre-settled status."

Carrick was sentenced at the Old Bailey after being convicted of molesting a 12-year-old girl and raping a former partner.

The 50-year-old was convicted of five counts of indecent assault, two counts of rape, one of sexual assault and one of controlling or coercive behaviour.

On Thursday, Mrs Justice McGowan handed Carrick another life sentence with a minimum term of 30 years to run concurrently.

The ex-armed officer was already serving 36 life sentences after being unmasked as one of the UK's worst sex offenders when he admitted crimes against 12 women over 17 years.

In 2023, he was sentenced to a minimum term of 32 years in a case that caused widespread public anger after it emerged that repeated opportunities to stop his offending had been missed while he was serving as a police officer.

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In his latest trial at the Old Bailey, he was found guilty of indecent assault against a 12-year-old girl in the late 1980s when he was a teenager.

In addition, he was convicted of raping a woman during the course of a toxic relationship more than 20 years later. He had denied all the fresh allegations.

During sentencing, Mrs Justice McGowan recognised the "courage and resilience" of the victims who were forced to give evidence due to his continued denials.

On the sexual assaults on a child when Carrick was a teenager, the judge said: "They were the first examples to come to light of your disposition to commit predatory sexual crimes."

She added: "I have no doubt that you are dangerous and the life sentences on an earlier occasion are fully merited."

Carrick's confession letter

During the trial, jurors heard how Carrick confessed in a letter, which was recovered from his medical records and signed "Dave".

In it, Carrick wrote that the girl was "not crazy" and that it was "true", but that he had stopped about four months previously.

In statements read to the court, both victims described the ongoing trauma from Carrick's abuse.

The woman who was molested as a child had difficulty trusting people and forming relationships, the court was told.

She said: "The public revelations of David's actions caused me to relive my trauma which severely impacted my mental health.

"I do not believe David has any remorse for his actions. He tries to blame his past home life for what he has done."

The woman who was raped by Carrick said in her statement that at first she found him "charming", but during their relationship he became controlling.

'Carrick ruined my life'

She said Carrick had "ruined" her life and tainted her views on sex and relationships.

"I did not get the chance to learn love in the way most people do - I learned survival instead. I fight through fear, through memories, through the exhaustion trauma leaves behind," she said.

When interviewed in Full Sutton prison in Yorkshire, Carrick claimed that sex with the woman was consensual and accused her of being motivated by the MeToo movement.

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Despite his written confession, he dismissed the historic child abuse allegations, claiming the girl was a liar.

'Manipulative, controlling and abusive'

Following the verdicts, senior Crown prosecutor Shilpa Shah described Carrick as "a manipulative, controlling and abusive man".

"He was aggressive, abusive, violent, and yet he appeared to be charming and charismatic. He didn't count on his victims coming forward and exposing him as they have, and I'd like to thank them for doing so," she said.

Detective Superintendent Iain Moor, of Hertfordshire Constabulary, said he was pleased to have been able to get justice for the victims and urged other victims to come forward.

Carrick joined the Met Police in 2001 before becoming an armed officer in the Parliamentary and Diplomatic Protection unit in 2009.

For entrepreneurs and those earning at the top rates, the wait could be as low as three years.

But for lower paid workers, people who have claimed benefits and those who arrived illegally, the term could stretch up to 25 years.

The aim of these reforms is initially around the huge number of people who moved to the UK in the so-called 'Boriswave' in the years after Brexit.

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Under the current five-year rule, they would start to become eligible for settlement from next year.

It's thought the largest volumes of people started to arrive in 2022 and 2023 under a now-axed care visa route.

That means the biggest peaks in applications for settlement would have started from 2027 and 2028.

Allies of the home secretary have previously made it known that she was "concerned" about this.

Under these reforms, someone who came to the UK as a lower-paid care worker in these years could see their wait for settlement lengthened from five to 15 years.

That could go up to 20 or even 25 if they have claimed benefits while in the country.

Without labouring the point, that could mean someone who was planning on getting settlement in 2027, now being forced to wait until 2047 before they can apply.

There will be discounts for achieving a higher level of English or volunteering and more senior public sector workers will retain their five-year route.

These changes will still be controversial though.

Expect accusations that the government is moving the goalposts for people who are in the country legally and breaking a contract with migrants who may have planned their lives around the existing settlement regime.

Home Office sources started the week briefing that Shabana Mahmood was a woman "in a hurry".

They weren't kidding.

In the space of four days she has ripped up and replaced swathes of immigration law related to both legal and illegal arrivals.

You could forgive many Brexit-supporting Tories for wondering if this is what "take back control" really looks like in practice.

Political editor Beth Rigby told the Electoral Dysfunction podcast with Baroness Harriet Harman that she had heard from two sources that the prime minister would make the trip - which will be controversial - at the end of January.

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She told the Labour peer: "Now, we've had this from a couple of different sources.

"As I understand it, it's not been confirmed, but I guess until they get on the plane, these things are never confirmed.

"But, you know, they might not really want people talking about the prime minister going to China, given the backdrop of the China spy case, and all of those allegations and all that controversy around China in the UK, the super embassy [proposal]."

She added: "But Harriet, what do you think? The prime minister should be going to China, shouldn't he? Given that we economically want to grow ties with China? What do you think?"

Baroness Harman replied: "I think he should, but I think there's no naivety around the government about, although there's opportunities to cooperate with China on climate change, on trade, that there's also major challenges that they've got to be wary of - so I think they'll be going, but with eyes wide open."

The trip is likely to be controversial given the UK's fractious relationship with China, made worse by recent allegations of spying in parliament.

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Earlier this week, MPs and peers were warned of new attempts to spy on them by China.

The security service MI5 sent a warning to those working in Westminster about two recruitment headhunters to watch out for who are working for Chinese security services.

It followed the collapse of a prosecution of two people suspected of spying on behalf of China.

A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in the UK said: "These claims by the UK side are pure fabrication and malicious slander. We strongly condemn such despicable moves of the UK side and have lodged stern representations with them.

"We urge the UK side to immediately stop this self-staged charade of false accusations and self-aggrandisement, and stop going further down the wrong path of undermining China-UK relations."

Rigby said the trip would be a "massive moment", noting that the last prime minister to visit China was Theresa May in 2018.

Last month Donald Trump met Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea.

The US president described the talks with China's president as "amazing" and said "on the scale of one to 10, the meeting with Xi was 12".

You can listen to the Electoral Dysfunction episode in full from 6am tomorrow.