Two things have just happened that we could have seen a mile off.
Events in the Middle East have followed the exact script for "what happens if you attack Iran", a scenario analysts have been predicting for decades.
If you take on the ayatollahs and threaten their future, they will take the gloves off and attack just about everybody. Check.
They will also make it effectively impossible to send shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by sinking tankers and forcing up the price of insurance to intolerable levels. Check.
The price of oil will soar. Gulf allies will warn of an apocalyptic collapse in energy supplies. Economists will predict the sky falling on our heads and a global economic calamity. Check, check, check.
And the pain for an American president facing midterm elections, if he allows them to happen, will just become too great. Check.
Experts have sat in TV studios predicting just that for years with maps and warnings about shutting off the world's jugular.
The second predictable outcome has become a constant of our time. Trump Always Chickens Out.
Robert Armstrong, the man who coined the term the TACO president, wrote in the Financial Times today: "It is, of course, utterly unclear whether the president's comments have anything to do with a change in balance of the war on the ground.
"What they did communicate clearly, to the delight of markets, was that Trump is looking for an exit."
Which is all the Iranian leadership needs to hear.
Trump wants out.
Whether it's this week or next or a bit longer, Iran's government just needs to hang in there.
America and Israel wanted regime change. If it is not changed, they will have failed and Iran's leadership will, rightly or wrongly, declare victory.
They may have lost every warplane and naval ship in their inventory. But they will remain in power, despite the yearning for change among so many of their people who had been promised help was 'on its way' by the US president.
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As for the Iranian nuclear programme, Trump will declare it obliterated. Again.
But as long as Iran has the scientists to rebuild it and the leadership committed to doing so, it can still rise from the ashes like a Persian phoenix.
What do future adversaries learn from all this?
In Beijing, they have been closely watching as they plan to seize Taiwan at some point during Xi Jinping's presidency.
They have a better gauge now of Donald Trump's tolerance for economic pain, a crucial factor as they game the invasion of their neighbour.
A president they always feared as unpredictable and mercurial has arguably become a little less so after what he called his recent "short-term excursion" in the Middle East.
Only a handful of vessels have transited in recent days, many switching off their tracking systems or linked to "shadow fleets".
"They can't physically close a waterway of that size, but the threat is there", said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of maritime risk company Lloyd's List Intelligence.
Mr Meade said Iran has a proven history of using everything from ballistic missiles to unmanned aerial and seaborne drones.
What is making it through?
Sky News' Data & Forensics team has focused on 13 ships that have transited the Strait of Hormuz between 2 and 9 March.
We know the real number of crossings is much higher, as some ships turn their tracking system off, a practice known as going "dark".
Data from marine analytics firm IMF Portwatch suggests that in normal times, about 30,000 ships transit the strait per year, that's 82 per day.
The animation below shows how shipping traffic dramatically changed.
Of the ships we have identified passing through the Strait of Hormuz, many have links to Iran, China or Russia. There are also ships from Greece, India, the UAE and Singapore.
Five vessels managed by Greek firm Dynacom have transited the Strait since the war began, according to marine tracking data from Kpler.
US President Donald Trump has been urging shipowners to "show some guts" and keep sailing.
'Shadow Fleet' have crossed the most
Shadow fleet tankers dominate current crossings of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence.
They found that, of the 13 large oil and gas carriers that crossed between 2-9 March, eight were classified as part of the so-called shadow fleet.
A tanker is classed as a shadow fleet if it is carrying sanctioned oil cargo from Iran, Russia or Venezuela.
What has been attacked?
Ten vessels in or near the Strait of Hormuz have been attacked since Iran blocked the waterway, according to the International Maritime Organisation (IMO).
Four vessels were attacked on 1 March, three people died that day, and multiple people were injured. Two vessels were attacked on 3 March, and at least one attack every day until 7 March.
According to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a total of 14 incidents from 28 February to 10 March have affected vessels operating in and around the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman.
In the interactive map below, suspicious activity, attacks and advisories are shown.
These ships carry the flag of many different countries, including the US, Marshall Islands, Gibraltar, United Arab Emirates, Bahamas, Panama and India.
On 4 March, a Malta-flagged container ship attempted to transit the strait and was hit by a projectile as it got close to the midpoint.
Tracking shows the Safeen Prestige grinding to a halt. The attack caused a fire in the engine room, and the crew had to abandon ship.
Sky News has verified CCTV video from another attack on the same day. A US-managed ship, Sonangol Namibe, was attacked by an unmanned drone boat.
The ship was 30 nautical miles southeast of the Kuwait coast. UKMTO reported an oil spill because of the incident.
The IRGC has warned that any US, Israeli or European vessel detected in the strait "will certainly be struck".
A surge in GPS jamming
There has been a huge surge in GPS jamming in the region. Hundreds of ships jump around the map and then cluster in very small areas.
GPS ship jamming is when signals are being interrupted, causing ships to send incorrect locations.
It's impossible to know exactly who is behind the jamming but analysts say it's likely to be both from Iran and others.
While Iran is widely suspected of trying to disrupt shipping in the region, analysts say the surge in GPS jamming could also be linked to others, including vessels seeking to mask their movements or respond defensively to threats, making it difficult to attribute the interference to a single source.
How has cargo shipping changed?
The Strait of Hormuz's closure also has global implications for commercial shipping routes. The two largest companies, Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), make up nearly 30% of global containerised shipping capacity in the world.
Both of these companies have suspended shipping to the Middle East.
Maersk said: "This decision has been taken as a precautionary measure to ensure the safety of our personnel and vessels."
Tracking data from MarineTraffic shows container ship 'Maersk Cincinnati' rerouting its course away from the strait.
On 2 March, the data shows the ship did an almost U-turn at around 2pm UTC. It continued to retreat from the area until 4 March, finally returning to the Port of Salalah in Oman, heading to the Gulf of Kutch on 10 March, where it appeared "laded", heavily loaded.
Mr Meade said: "We're seeing a number of ships doing U-turns. They're likely getting orders to go and perform alternative operations. Now, that's fine for the ships that are headed into the Gulf, but for the ships that are already there, they're essentially stuck."
Additional reporting by Joely Santa-Cruz, Data Journalist
The Data x Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Cherish Bean, 15, and Ethan Slater, 17, died in a cabin at Little Eden Holiday Park in Bridlington on the Yorkshire coast last month.
Four people who are "associated with the management and maintenance" of the holiday park have been arrested on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter before being interviewed and bailed, police said.
An inquest into the couple's deaths heard on Tuesday that the teenagers had been on a family holiday and were "fit and well" when they went to bed on 17 February.
After spending the evening together as a family, Cherish retired to a smaller cabin, known as the "Mancave", where she stayed with Ethan, at about 9pm to watch television.
Cherish returned to the main cabin saying that she had a headache and took some Calpol because the family had no paracetamol, the inquest at Hull Coroner's Court heard.
She went back to the smaller cabin and texted her mother after 10pm to say goodnight and that she loved her, senior coroner Paul Marks said.
He added that Ethan went back to the cabin at a similar time.
Humberside Police detective chief inspector Ben Robinson told the inquest there was reason to believe the couple's deaths were "associated with carbon monoxide poisoning".
DCI Robinson said the official medical cause of death was still pending the forensic pathologist's examination.
He added the boiler from the cabin had been recovered and a forensic evaluation had been carried out, supported by specialist gas engineers.
The Health and Safety Executive and the National Crime Agency had also been consulted, DCI Robinson said.
Professor Marks adjourned the inquest until after the conclusion of the police investigation.
"I would like, once again, to extend my condolences to both the families of these young people," he said.
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In a tribute to her daughter released last month by police, Cherish's mother said: "My girl, my world, my love, my everything.
"My perfect girl, my angel, has left this world and we are broken as a family. I am broken as a mother, and I will never ever be the same again.
"If you know me, I live and breathe my babies, and we were away for a few nights making the best memories ever. We have had the best life together and it has been ripped from under us.
"There are no words, I am shattered and will never recover. Hug your children tonight you do not know how lucky you are.
"Ethan, bless you darling, such a good boy with a kind heart and I loved you like my own."
Also paying tribute, Ethan's mother said: "Ethan was the most beautiful young man to walk the earth. He was generous, loving, charming and kind.
"He would help anyone and was a strong family man. He took care of himself and loved his mum, stepdad, brothers and sister.
"There's not one person who would dislike him even if they tried. His smile was contagious, and he could light up any room he walked into.
"Ethan, you will always be remembered for the amazing young man you were, and the one you were destined to be. We hope you know how loved you are our boy, rest well and keep the table warm for us up there.
"Cherish was the apple of Ethan's eye, everyone could see how smitten they both were. She was beautiful, elegant, and made Ethan happy. We know you will keep each other young and safe.
"Look after each other. Rest in peace."
But RAF Akrotiri was hit by a drone more than a week ago - with others intercepted - so why has it taken so long for the ship to set sail?
Former Royal Navy commander and defence analyst Tom Sharpe OBE said shooting down drones is "bread and butter" stuff for the stealthy Type 45 destroyer.
Iran war latest: HMS Dragon leaves harbour
He told Sky News there were two key reasons why the ship had only just been deployed - and said "neither are good".
Mr Sharpe said the first is down to a "30-year decline" in defence spending - a topic in sharp focus since the Ukraine War - which means the Navy's cupboard is "very bare".
He singled out the period when David Cameron was prime minister.
"The strategic defence review in 2010 [and] the Cameron-Osbourne austerity review really expedited that decline, and for that period of Tory government no new warships were ordered," Mr Sharpe told Sky's This Is Why podcast.
"The replacement frigates were put on ice. There's a real culpability here to that entire era."
Mr Sharpe, who commanded four ships during his 27-year career, said the Royal Navy essentially now had just seven frigates and six destroyers.
"If you do the rule of three to one - which is one working up, one on operations and one in maintenance - that leaves your cupboard very bare," he said.
"And we effectively have two destroyers that are seaworthy at the moment. It just so happens neither are at immediate notice to go."
He said Britain still had the "building blocks" of a functioning navy, such as anti-submarine warfare, air defence and mine warfare, but it had become "wafer thin".
Limited resources mean there's now a "real nervousness about using these precious assets", according to Mr Sharpe, as it might put them out of action further down the line due to the need for routine maintenance.
"This is one of the reasons she [HMS Dragon] wasn't sent, because if we sent her early - earlier than we were expecting - what do we now lose, what can we not do in six months' time," he said.
The second main reason for the warship's tardy departure falls at the government's feet, according to Mr Sharpe.
He said ministers must take a significant share of the blame as the need to get a Type 45 "ready for sea and out the door was blatantly obvious".
For example, US President Donald Trump had made no secret of the fact that the US was building significant military assets near Iran in the weeks leading up to its first strikes.
"The Navy would have said so [that battleships needed to be ready to go] - but that's not their decision," Mr Sharpe explained.
"They just present options, 'this is what we've got, this is what we recommend.' Then it's not in their hands.
"So somewhere between the Navy and Number 10, the decision-making process this time around has gone really badly wrong."
Crew 'straining at the leash'
HMS Dragon could now take anywhere between six and a half and 11 days to get to Cyprus depending on conditions in the Bay of Biscay and the speed it can maintain, according to the former Navy commander.
He said the 200-strong crew would be "straining at the leash" to put their training into practice.
The ship is set to use its pyramid-shaped Sampson radar tower to detect any drones or missiles heading towards Cyprus and the Akrotiri airbase.
The weapons at its disposal are formidable: Surface-to-air Sea Viper missiles, a 20mm Phalanx rapid-fire cannon for close-range combat, and an automated 30mm cannon that can take out multiple drones.
"The Sampson radar can multitask at an extraordinary rate and will determine for you what is the greatest threat," Mr Sharpe told Sky.
There's also a chance, though, that priorities could change in the coming days and weeks, he added.
Dragon could potentially end up playing a part in an effort to open up the Strait of Hormuz - the vital oil route that's currently a no-go zone for commercial ships.
"At some point, someone is going to have to try to lever that open," he said. "The Type 45 in that environment would be very, very useful to the American effort down there."
However, one potential scenario, according to Mr Sharpe, could be that the war ends or simmers down to an extent that the UK warship is not really needed.
"There's a very real chance she'll get there, come storming in at the last minute and everyone will go 'thanks very much, you can carry on now'."
If at this point you're wondering why it isn't being adopted immediately, well, if you read between the lines, the study shows that too.
It's a tale which demonstrates the challenges of adopting a new technology, even one with the power to save lives.
The study, published today by Google, the NHS and Imperial College London, took 115,000 breast scans from five NHS screening services and asked an AI and a human specialist to go through them, looking for cancer.
The AI achieved better results than the human, finding around two more cancers per 1000 women.
Significantly, it also detected 25% of "interval cancers' - cancers diagnosed between routine screening rounds after an earlier scan came up clear - which implies it could help catch breast cancer earlier, a crucial factor in preventing its spread.
Although the AI outperformed a single human, it's not correct to say it can beat radiologists, because the NHS uses two doctors to go through scans, with a third expert on hand to decide a difference of opinion, a system known as arbitration.
A second Google paper examined the arbitration system and found that, when the human-AI team was compared with a human-human pair, the results were roughly equal.
The AI was slightly better at spotting hard-to-detect cancers, but it tended to flag more cases that didn't have cancer. Overall, the researchers write that these "differences were not statistically significant".
AI was not better than a human; it was as good, with the added benefit of offering a different perspective on some invasive cancers, especially among women getting scanned for the first time.
As the researchers say: "This study corroborates previous findings that breast AI can operate at least on par with human specialists."
So AI isn't superhuman. But that doesn't mean it doesn't have real potential.
Scans read faster by AI than human
Across the two sites the researchers studied, the average time for AI to complete a read was 17.7 minutes, compared to 2.08 days for the first human radiologist. That, the researchers write, is "a significant time saving".
The NHS in England is not meeting its targets for cancer diagnosis and there is a shortage of people trained in the art of reading scans: the Google paper says there is "a 30% shortfall of clinical radiologists and this is forecast to rise to 40% by 2028".
For this reason, the researchers highlight the potential for AI to work alongside a human, achieving the same results at lightning speed.
However, once again, the situation is more complicated than it appears, because although the AI saved significant time when it came to reading scans, it shifted some of that workload over to arbitration.
The third expert needed to be called in much more to adjudicate between the AI and the human than it did when both the radiologists were humans. In the two centres studied, the number of arbitrations rose by 142% and 22%.
Simply put, the human doctors found it harder to trust the AI evaluations. There were even 93 cases where the AI correctly identified cancer, but the humans overruled it at arbitration, and the researchers say that this was often down to confusion about the AI's approach.
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Even with this increase in arbitration, they still believe that AI could significantly save time for doctors, suggesting it could cut time spent looking at scans by 32%.
Or would it? Once again, the situation is more complex than it seems.
AI needs to be introduced slowly - and with oversight
That's partly because the NHS isn't really set up for AI, with most radiologists still using paper scans which the AI can't read, but also because the AI itself was quite sensitive and needed careful handling.
For instance, when radiologists changed the machine they were using to take the scans, recall rates for patients doubled. Confused by its new input, the AI started putting out false alarms.
"Our study emphasises the need for a phased, iterative approach to AI deployment to ensure that model thresholds are carefully calibrated to the local environment," the researchers write.
Translation: this labour-saving device should be introduced slowly and will need specialists to stop it from going off the rails.
It can sometimes seem as if the NHS is very close to achieving the gains from AI. Yet with challenges like this to overcome, it might be a while yet until it does.