It follows a letter published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the official watchdog which draws up forecasts for the Treasury, published on Friday.

In it, OBR chair Richard Hughes (who is already under fire for the leak of the budget measures) said he'd taken the unusual step of revealing the forecasts it had submitted to Rachel Reeves in the 10 weeks before the budget, and which is normally shrouded in secrecy.

The letter reveals this timeline, which has plunged the chancellor into trouble:

17 September - first forecast

At this point, it was already known that the UK's growth forecast would be downgraded. The chancellor was told that the "increases in real wages and inflation" would offset the impact of the downgrade. The deficit forecast by the end of the parliament was £2.5bn.

20 October - second forecast

By this point, that deficit had turned into a small surplus of £2.1bn - i.e. the productivity downgrade has been wiped out and "both of the government's fiscal targets were on course to be met".

31 October - third forecast

The final one before the Treasury put forward its measures. The finances were now net positive with a £4.2bn surplus.

But the accusation is that Rachel Reeves was presenting an entirely different picture - that she had a significant black hole which needed to be filled.

13 October

Ms Reeves tells Sky's deputy political editor Sam Coates the productivity downgrade has been challenging but added: "I won't duck those challenges. Of course we're looking at tax and spending."

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27 October

With the Treasury now aware the deficit had been wiped out, the Financial Times was briefed about a "£20bn hit to public finances."

4 November

Ms Reeves gave a dawn news conference in Downing Street, setting the stage for tax rises. She says she wants people "to understand the circumstances we are facing... productivity performance is weaker than previously thought", adding that "we will all have to contribute".

10 November

Ms Reeves tells BBC 5Live that sticking to Labour's promises not to raise taxes would require "things like deep cuts in capital spending". The stage seemed set for the nuclear option - the first income tax rise in decades.

13 November

After headlines about a plot to oust Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, the Financial Times reported that the chancellor had dropped plans to raise income tax because of improved forecasts [which we now know hadn't changed since 31 October], putting the black hole closer to £20bn than £30bn.

The prime minister's spokesperson has insisted Ms Reeves did not mislead voters and set out her choices, and the reasons for them, at the budget.

But the issue has had enormous cut-through, with newspapers giving it top billing.

The Sun's Saturday front page headline - "Chancer of the Exchequer - fury at Reeves 'lies' over £30bn black hole" - will not have been pleasant reading for ministers.

She now has questions to answer about the chaotic run-up to the budget - of briefing and counter-briefing, which critics say now makes little sense.

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said on Saturday: "We have learned that the chancellor misrepresented the OBR's forecasts. She sold her 'Benefits Street' budget on a lie. Honesty matters... she has to go."

Economist Paul Johnson, former director of the respected Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), told The Times the chancellor's 4 November news briefing "probably was misleading. It was clearly intended to have an impact and confirm what independent forecasters like [the National Institute of Economic and Social Research] and the IFS had been saying".

"It was designed to confirm a narrative that there was a fiscal hole that needed to be filled with significant tax rises. In fact, as she knew at the time, no such hole existed."

Read more on budget fallout:
Reeves accused over forecasts
Hospitality 'needs a lifeline'

Ms Reeves is doing a round of morning interviews on Sunday in which she'll be grilled over which of her budget measures will generate economic growth (which the government claimed was its number one priority), why they have been unable to tackle rising welfare spending and now about why markets and voters were left confused by dire warnings.

She may claim that she never personally said there was a specific £30bn black hole or that the extra headroom generated by the tax rises will ensure she does not have to come back for more next year.

In an interview with The Saturday's Guardian, Ms Reeves said she had "chosen to protect public spending" on schools and hospitals in the budget.

She confirmed an income tax rise had been looked at, and insisted that OBR forecasts "move around" after the Treasury has submitted its planned measures. There are plenty more questions to come.

Meanwhile, Sir Keir will use a speech on Monday to support Ms Reeves' budget decisions and set out his long-term growth plans.

He will praise the budget for bearing down on the cost of living, ensuring economic stability through greater headroom, lower inflation and a commitment to fiscal rules, and protecting investment and public services.

Sir Keir will say "economic growth is beating the forecasts", but that the government must go "further and faster" to encourage it.

Rachel Reeves will be speaking to Trevor Phillips on his Sunday show from 8.30am this morning. He will also be joined by Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper.

The ban was imposed after the force in Birmingham concluded that the visit of Maccabi was too "high risk" to allow visiting fans amid inflamed community tensions over the Gaza war.

And the decision will be challenged by the Home Affairs Select Committee on Monday when leaders from the force are questioned by MPs.

It comes as Sky News can reveal officers only classified Thursday's Europa League match between Aston Villa and BSC Young Boys as "medium risk" despite three UEFA disciplinary cases against the Swiss club since 2023 for fan unrest, including partial stadium bans being imposed.

And some of those Young Boys fans then fought with police and a Villa player was left bloodied by a plastic cup being thrown.

West Midlands Police has not explained in any more detail about the lower classification for the Young Boys match.

While Maccabi has not been hit with any UEFA disciplinary cases recently for hooliganism, the club's Europa League game at Ajax in November 2024 raised concerns in Birmingham about the ability to allow Israeli fans.

Understanding it means going back to November 2024 - and the days of disorder around Maccabi's Europa League match against Ajax.

It's this incident that had to be assessed by authorities in England when deciding how to police Maccabi's visit to Villa this month.

But the accuracy of this assessment has been called into question.

Sky News has heard in depth from Dutch police about what they told officers in England about the threat posed by the Israeli supporters in a video call at the start of October.

What's not doubted by the police or indeed Maccabi is that Israeli ultras - more violent fans - were involved in attacks and anti-Palestinian chants in Amsterdam. They armed themselves with belts and padlocks, attacking taxis and scooter-riders.

Contradictions in police accounts

But there are some apparent contradictions between the accounts of the two forces.

In dispute are elements of a document produced by West Midlands Police to justify advice to Birmingham's Safety Advisory Group, which has been leaked.

It effectively set out why Maccabi fans were deemed too dangerous to be allowed into Villa.

A key claim from West Midlands Police is that 500 to 600 Maccabi fans apparently intentionally targeted Muslim communities in Amsterdam. Amsterdam police says there were 500 to 800 high-risk Maccabi supporters.

Muslims 'not targeted' by visiting fans

But the force told me: "We did not see large groups of Maccabi's (fans) going into Muslim populated areas to target Muslims."

Asked to clarify, it added: "Provocations came from both sides. This all happened in the city centre. That's not the same as a large group (of) Maccabi (fans) going into a Muslim populated area to target Muslims."

Amsterdam police also made no reference in a detailed timeline provided to us of the notable claim by West Midlands Police that Maccabi fans threw "innocent members of the public into the river".

The five people convicted in Amsterdam were all for violence against Israelis.

It is not clear why no Israeli fans were prosecuted, given that the Amsterdam police cited in detail attacks by them.

'Offensive, racist expressions'

"Compared to other European high-risk football supporters, Amsterdam police makes the assessment that the Maccabi supporters were quite self-confident and were not afraid - neither of opponents, nor of the police," the timeline provided to us said.

It goes on to highlight "offensive, racist expressions" in Hebrew shouted by Maccabi fans.

It turns to the situation towards the city centre after the match.

Referencing "Maccabi Tel Aviv rioters", it says: "Along the way, they equip themselves with materials such as metal rods and stones. Stones are also thrown at taxis.

"At the same time, another development takes place: small groups of pro-Palestinian rioters actively search for individuals they perceive as Israeli, Jewish or Maccabi supporters. At 23.55pm, the first 'flash' attacks on Maccabi supporters begin at Dam Square.

"Several dozen violent incidents in the city centre follow. The pro-Palestinian rioters use various methods to reach their victims: some move on foot; others use scooters or taxis to move quickly through the city.

"This makes it difficult for the police to intervene quickly and effectively. This proves to be a fundamentally different form of violence compared to earlier situations, which involved clashes between groups facing each other.

"From 1.24am onward, reports of attacks decrease, but fear among Jewish residents of Amsterdam and Israeli tourists remains high. Multiple reports come in of people feeling unsafe and not daring to leave their hotels."

A West Midlands Police document does say there was evidence of "incitement to attack Jewish fans", but they largely overlook what officers in Amsterdam said was the threat posed to the Maccabi contingent.

The force had to assess the resources needed for the match.

It claims 5,000 officers had to be deployed in Amsterdam. But the Dutch police confirmed to us there were only 1,200 police deployed.

It's raising new questions for the Aston Villa-supporting Tory MP Nick Timothy - a former Home Office special adviser - about the characterisation of Maccabi fans.

"This isn't just about a football match," Mr Timothy told Sky News. "This isn't just about the rights of the Israeli supporters to come to Britain and watch their team. This is about whether we can trust the police to do their job without fear or favour, as the police oath requires them to do. And whether we can trust them to tell us the truth.

"They've presented an intelligence report that they say is based on information provided by the Dutch. The Dutch say that that information is not true".

Read more on Sky News:
'False claims' fuelled fan ban
Maccabi chief condemns 'racist hate'
Emergency measures over anti-Israeli attacks

West Midlands Police said in a statement it is "satisfied in the veracity of our information and intelligence, which put public safety at the heart of our decision-making.

"We will be giving evidence to the Home Affairs Select Committee on Monday 1 December and therefore it would be inappropriate to make further comment at this time."

The only time the force has so far explained the decision on camera was in an interview with me on the day of the Villa match when Chief Superintendent Tom Joyce highlighted "quite significant levels of hooliganism" among Maccabi fans.

He said banning supporters is not a "precedent but it's one we would use rarely, clearly".

Few policing decisions have been as contentious, as scrutinised this year, with Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer this week expressing fresh concern about the evidence used to ban by officers.

Former NHS Tayside neurosurgeon Sam Eljamel is originally from Libya and is believed to be operating there now.

Suspended from his work at a hospital in Dundee in 2013, Eljamel is accused by dozens of former patients of carrying out life-changing "botched" brain and spinal operations. The claims include removing the wrong body parts.

A public inquiry is under way and Police Scotland is examining up to 200 patient cases as part of an ongoing criminal investigation.

'Paralysed by my surgeon'

Annemarie Pymm, a former tax worker, lives in Perth with her husband Dougie. She is paralysed and can barely speak after undergoing two brain operations by Eljamel to remove cancer and requires 24/7 care.

Sitting next to his wife, Mr Pymm told Sky News: "She can't walk. She can't talk. She can't do anything for herself."

The Pymms are part of a growing group of families who are demanding answers and accountability.

"Professor Eljamel... Do you know what he has done to my wife and 200 other people? He mutilated them," Dougie said.

Eljamel was head of neurosurgery at NHS Tayside from 1995 to 2013. He was lauded as one of Europe's leading brain surgeons and boasted a CV that was pages long.

When allegations of malpractice first emerged, NHS bosses allowed the surgeon to operate on a further 111 patients unsupervised despite being under clinical supervision.

Health chiefs have since admitted patients were put at unnecessary risk.

His final NHS patient: 'I sued and won'

One of those patients was Jules Rose, who is now the lead campaigner in this scandal.

Medical notes reveal Ms Rose, who lives in Kinross, had a tear gland removed instead of a brain tumour during Eljamel's last ever surgery on Scottish soil.

She was unaware he was under investigation at the time and has since won a successful lawsuit against the NHS.

She said: "Where were the checks and balances in all of this? Where were the systemic processes that Eljamel should have been going through?"

The former marathon runner describes Eljamel as a "butcher" who has destroyed her life.

Sky News contacted the hospital in Misrata, Libya, where Eljamel is thought to be employed. An employee confirmed he works there almost every day but declined our request to speak directly to him.

Will Eljamel ever be extradited to UK?

A formal extradition treaty exists between the UK and Libya, allowing Libyan nationals to be sent back to Britain in certain criminal circumstances.

Professor Peter Watson is a senior lawyer who represented British families in the decades-long diplomatic and legal battle with Libya over the Lockerbie bombing, the UK's worst-ever terror attack.

All passengers and crew on board Pan Am flight 103 were killed when the plane exploded over the Scottish town in 1988.

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The subsequent investigation, involving Mr Watson, centred on discussions with authorities in Libya after various Libyan nationals were accused of the terror attack.

Sky News visited him to ask him, with his knowledge of how the system operates there, his views on the prospect of Eljamel being brought back to Scotland to face any formal charges, if any were brought forward.

Mr Watson told Sky News: "I think the challenge is probably too big. The steps that Crown Office and the police would be required to take would require the cooperation and agreement of the Libyan authorities. It is difficult to see how that would happen."

He concluded: "Libya is a country in turmoil. Various factions are fighting to take control of various parts. You'd have to persuade the Libyan authorities that it was in the interests of their citizens and of Libya for this process to take place."

Public inquiry gets under way

In 2021, a Scottish court ordered Dr Eljamel to pay a former patient £2.8m in compensation after a judge ruled the surgeon was entirely to blame for leaving a woman with serious disabilities.

A judge-led independent public inquiry examining what went wrong is now under way in Edinburgh.

It is examining, among other areas, failures including a lack of effective systems to pick up on recurrent mistakes by surgeons during Eljamel's tenure in Scotland.

Earlier this week, it emerged that 40 hard copy theatre logbooks containing information on surgeries carried out by Eljamel between 1995 and 2013 had been destroyed.

They were wrecked in July this year despite a formal "Do Not Destroy" order being in place for the inquiry.

NHS Tayside has apologised and said it will fully comply with the investigations and inquiries.

The weekend at least lent them time to pay tribute, and gave them some space to reflect.

People came in droves to lay flowers, so many a queuing system was needed.

Official books of condolences were also set up in multiple parts of the city.

It was the first day large teams of investigators were able to enter the site. Dozens of them in hazmat suits were bused in, their work the grimmest of tasks.

Every so often you could see a flashlight peep through the window of an upper blackened window, a reminder that the fire services are still undertaking dangerous work.

But the reach of the authorities is ramping up here.

Yesterday a grass roots aid distribution centre was the vibrant heart of the response.

They received notice at 4am that they needed to pack up and move on. By 10.30am, the mountains of donations were gone, residents watched on, bewildered.

The task apparently will be handed over to professional NGOs.

"I think the government's biggest concern is due to some past incidents," one organiser tells us. "They may liken this to previous events. The essence looks similar."

She's careful with her words, but she's clearly hinting at major pro-democracy protests that were crushed by authorities in 2019.

Any sort of mass gathering is now seen as a risk, the system is still very nervous.

And they might well be because people here are angry.

What, they ask, did the government know? What did it choose to ignore?

Indeed, Sky News has learnt that residents raised their fears over fire safety connected to extensive renovations on Wang Fuk Court as early as September 2024.

They flagged the suspected flammability of green nets being used to cover the building.

An email response from the Labour Department was sent a few months later to Jason Poon, a civil engineer-turned-activist, who was working with residents. It insists that "the mesh's flame retardant properties meet safety standards".

But many clearly didn't believe it. Posts spanning many months on a residents' Facebook group continued to voice their fears.

When a much smaller fire broke out in the city last month, one resident posted: "All the materials outside are flammable, I feel really worried."

"I feel that same way" another replied. "The government has no sense of concern."

For Poon, who dedicates much of his time to fighting lax safety standards in Hong Kong's construction industry, the whole experience has been devastating.

"They knew all the maintenance was using corner-cutting materials, but they didn't do anything," he says.

"This is a man-made disaster."

We put these allegations to Hong Kong's Labour Department but they have not yet responded to our request for comment.

Grief may still be the prominent force here, but anger is not that far behind.

Daniel Naroditsky, 29, was a pioneer in the world of competitive speed chess, which surged during the COVID-19 pandemic and amassed hundreds of thousands of online followers.

But the chess world was rocked when allegations of cheating - never substantiated - were levelled against him by former world champion Vladimir Kramnik.

The explosion of online chess has brought with it a surge in cheating claims - false and otherwise - that has often put the ancient board game in the headlines.

In his haunting final livestream, Naroditsky talked about the toll it had on him, saying it felt like "people assume the worst" when he won games.

Naroditsky - known to many as Danya - was found unresponsive at his home in North Carolina in October.

The cause of his death has not been made public and police are investigating it as a possible suicide, overdose or from natural causes.

Leader of the blazing fast world of online speed chess

A prodigy, Naroditsky was just 18 when he became a grandmaster (the highest title in chess apart from world champion).

The son of Jewish immigrants to the US from Ukraine and Azerbaijan, he was born in San Mateo County, California, and showed an impressive attention span and memory as a child.

Naroditsky was consistently ranked in the top 200 for traditional chess, but it was in the fast-paced world of blitz chess where he truly excelled.

In the format where players have just fractions of a second to make decisions, Naroditsky maintained a spot in the top 25 players in the world.

He became one of the most influential voices in the sport and drew hundreds of thousands of followers online as he played a fundamental role in popularising speed chess.

Naroditsky, like many prominent chess players, would regularly livestream his games and provide live commentary on his moves.

'People assume the worst'

Comments by Russian grandmaster Vladimir Kramnik, a former world champion and well-known figure in the chess world, were seen as unsubstantiated claims of cheating levelled against Naroditsky.

He had been one of Naroditsky's childhood heroes. Naroditsky denied the claims and they were never proven.

But the allegations - which Kramnik denies ever making - appear to have taken a toll on the young chess star.

In the last livestream he filmed before his death, Naroditsky said it was "absolutely terrifying" seeing some people believe the cheating accusations. "You're like, this cannot be happening."

He added: "Ever since the Kramnik stuff, I feel like if I start doing well, people assume the worst of intentions."

"The issue is just the lingering effect of it."

Grandmasters criticise Kramnik

Members of the chess world paid tribute to Naroditsky in the days after his death, praising his prodigious skill and his impact on the community.

"Let us remember Daniel for his passion and love for the game of chess, and for the joy and inspiration he brought to us all every day," his family said.

But as well as tributes to Naroditsky, fellow grandmasters have also heavily criticised Kramnik on social media.

American grandmaster Hikaru Nakamura went on an expletive-laden rant on a livestream, while Indian grandmaster Nihal Sarin accused the Russian pro of trying to destroy Naroditsky's life.

Others called for an end to the constant finger-pointing that seems to have followed players like Naroditsky who excelled specifically at speed chess,

Chess.com - the hugely popular website where people from all over the world, including the game's elite, come together to play - shut down Kramnik's blog in 2023.

It said he had used the platform to spread baseless cheating allegations about "many dozens of players".

Read more from Sky News:
Could the next king of English chess be a Russian?
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Who is Vladimir Kramnik and who has he accused?

Born in the Soviet Union, in what is now Russia, Kramnik, 50, is a former world champion and one of the top-ranked players of his generation.

But his outspoken nature has seen him in the headlines for his words rather than his chessboard talent.

Starting in October 2024, he made comments about Naroditsky, suggesting his near-perfect play was "statistically impossible".

Kramnik continued to post about Naroditsky on the day his death was announced, calling it a tragedy and speculating about the cause.

He said Naroditsky's death "has deeply shaken me personally" but also went on to criticise what he called "an unprecedentedly cynical and unlawful campaign of harassment against me and my family".

Kramnik denied making any personal attacks or insults towards Naroditsky.

It's not the first time Kramnik has gotten caught up in discussions of alleged irregularities in the game.

His comments about Nakamura - a hugely popular chess streamer and one of the highest-ranked players in the world - attracted a lot of attention.

In a post on his now-shuttered blog in November 2023, he said: "Having checked Hikaru's statistics carefully, I have found NUMEROUS low probabilities performances both of him and some of his opponents."

Nakamura said that Kramnik was "cherry picking" statistics and criticised "false accusations".

In a statement, Chess.com said it had analysed almost 2,000 reports on Hikaru's games in its Fair Play system and "found no incidents of cheating".

Kramnik responded by claiming that he never accused Hikaru of cheating and threatened to sue Chess.com.

Cheating in chess - how common is it?

While bending the rules in traditional "over the board chess" is difficult (but not impossible), the surge in popularity of online chess has seen more instances of cheating.

According to Professor Kenneth Regan, an expert in computer science and a chess international master, there are between five and 10 cases of cheating each year for in-person chess.

"The rate of cheating online is 100 to 200 times higher than the rate over the board," he added.

There are ways to police the game online, he says, but these are intrusive.

"The thing that often gets forgotten is that in statistics, lightning does, sometimes, strike twice," Erik Allebest, CEO of Chess.com, told Sky News' sister outlet NBC News.

"When you have 20 million games being played every day, a one-in-a-million chance thing happens every day.

"Some players, especially old-guard players who didn't grow up playing online chess, often find that hard to understand."

In 2022, Magnus Carlsen - considered by many to be the greatest player of all time - accused American Hans Niemann of cheating.

The explosive allegations followed a shock upset victory for Niemann over Carlsen at an in-person match as well as an online game between the pair in which Carlsen resigned after just one move.

It sparked a furore that brought huge attention to the sport - not always considered a bad thing - and ended with the players agreeing to move forward and an end to legal proceedings.

Complaint against Kramnik - and an award in Naroditsky's memory

Chess's international governing body FIDE (the chess version of FIFA) has filed a complaint against Kramnik following his conduct towards Naroditsky.

It said: "The complaint outlines a pattern of conduct over roughly two years and cites several public statements and materials that FIDE considers relevant to potential violations related to harassment and the insulting of an individual's dignity."

If the complaint is found proven, Kramnik could face sanctions including a fine or a ban from competitions.

Kramnik again denied wrongdoing after the complaint was filed, telling Reuters news agency: "What public statement after the death of Daniel was incorrect? ... I have not bullied Daniel Naroditsky, nor ever made personal insults towards him."

A petition calling on FIDE to ban Kramnik and revoke his grandmaster title has attracted more than 54,000 signatures.

Meanwhile, FIDE has said it will establish a special prize in memory of Naroditsky and his contribution to chess.

"It is painful for players like Danya (Naroditsky) to be accused of cheating, because since they were young they put in hours and hours and hours of work," Allebast, the chief executive of Chess.com said.

"For some, that all gets thrown into the garbage by an accusation. For players who view chess as sacred, it hurts them in the soul."

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK