On Thursday night I was told that Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer were now not going to raise income tax, having had anonymous briefings for weeks that a manifesto-breaking tax rise was coming, culminating in the speech in Downing Street by the chancellor last week alluding to that.

Politics live: U-turn on budget income tax rise triggers 'not normal' market volatility

I had also heard the prime minister was going to make a speech next week to the same effect.

The U-turn - first broken in the Financial Times - was not something the government wanted to leak, and there is anger in Downing Street.

I was told late last night by a source that the decision had been taken to back off income tax rises.

There is obviously some consternation, to say the least, that ministers, the party, the public have been marched up the hill, only to be marched back down again. It all adds to a sense of chaos and a government out of control. So what on earth is going on?

Read more: How No 10 plunged itself into crisis

Let's first do the economics of it. I was told this morning by Treasury sources that the fiscal forecasts from the Office of Budget Responsibility are stronger than expected.

There had been expectations of a £30bn-£40bn black hole in the public finances.

But I'm told today that black hole is actually closer to £20bn: the chancellor also wants headroom of perhaps up to £15bn, but I'm told the change in forecasts has changed the calculation. I'm told wage growth has been stronger which has helped tax receipts and improved forecasts.

So, where does that leave the government? Treasury figures tell me that the change in forecasts mean the manifesto-busting income tax hike is now not necessary.

I don't need to spell out the jeopardy for such a move: Rachel Reeves was poised to be the first chancellor in 50 years to raise the basic rate of income tax and break the core manifesto pledge that Labour made to voters last year.

It doesn't mean taxes are not going up. The government is set to freeze tax thresholds for another two years from 2028. That will raise around £8bn as millions of workers are dragged into higher tax bands and end up paying more tax.

There will also be tax raising around pensions and salary sacrifice schemes and on electric vehicles, as well as other measures, as the chancellor casts around for £20bn.

But what about the politics? Well, one government figure today insists that the decision to drop the income tax plan is nothing to do with the self-inflicted leadership crisis at No 10 after anonymous briefings designed to see off any potential post-budget coup against the prime minister spectacularly backfired. The changed forecasts, I'm told, came in last week.

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But of course there's tonnes of politics in this. The talk of higher wage growth perhaps offsetting some of the productivity downgrades was being flagged a couple of weeks back, before the chancellor made her speech.

It's extremely unusual for a chancellor to pitch-roll their budget. But Reeves did it for a reason.

That was laying the ground for a massive budget that would bring manifesto-breaking tax rises.

She told us of the difficult environment, ruled out more borrowing or spending cuts before telling us "everyone must play their part". She repeatedly refused to stick to manifesto promises on tax. It doesn't get much more stark than that.

That the government has U-turned on that decision is about far more than just the fiscal framework.

Read more: What taxes could go up now?

With trust so low in the government, there were serious worries - and warnings - from the party that such a big manifesto break might be something from which the PM and the chancellor wouldn't recover.

One senior party figure that thinks there could be a leadership challenge after the May elections told me this week that manifesto-breaking tax rises would only make that more likely because Labour would "need a clean skin" to try and rebuild with the public if Starmer broke his promises in that way.

Read more: Is Starmer 'in office but not in power'?

Lucy Powell, the deputy Labour leader, fired a warning shot last week when she said the party should stick to the manifesto and not raise tax: "We should be following through on our manifesto, of course. There's no question about that," she told Matt Chorley on BBC Radio 5 Live.

"Trust in politics is a key part of that because if we're to take the country with us then they've got to trust us and that's really important too."

The party will no doubt feel relief today that the chancellor is not going to break the manifesto.

It would have only made things a whole lot worse for a government that is in real trouble.

But the shambles of this week is staggering. From the self-inflicted leadership crisis to leaks over a massive budget U-turn, it all lends to the sense that this is a No 10 out of control, lurching from one mess to another. Strap in.

Larry Fraser, 49, of Beckton, east London, was sentenced on Friday after pleading guilty to one count of non-residential burglary at Kingston Crown Court on 9 October.

The painting, one of the street artist's most famous, was stolen from a gallery in New Cavendish Street in London at around 11pm on 8 September last year.

Fraser used a hammer to smash his way through a glass entrance door at the Grove Gallery before stealing the artwork, which was valued at £270,000.

He concealed his identity with a mask, hooded jacket and gloves, but the Metropolitan Police's Flying Squad was able to identify him and track him to a location streets away.

He was also caught on CCTV loading the artwork into a van before fleeing the scene.

A second man, 54-year-old James Love, was accused of being the getaway driver in the burglary, but cleared of stealing the print.

Fraser was arrested at his home address on 10 September, within 48 hours of the burglary, and charged the next day.

Officers were able to recover the artwork after executing a warrant on the Isle of Dogs. It has now been returned to the gallery.

Fraser pleaded to the court that he was struggling with a historic drug debt and agreed to steal the work "under a degree of pressure and fear".

He said he did not know what he would be stealing, nor its value, until the day of the offence.

Jeffrey Israel, defending, said Fraser lived with his mother as her principal carer, and had only managed to "break his cycle of drug addiction" after his last prison sentence.

He added that it "would take a bold advocate" to suggest that the value of the print had increased by the burglary, but insisted "that is probably the reality".

Read more:
Banksy artwork 'worth millions' scrubbed off wall outside court
Blink-182 star to auction rare Banksy worth millions

Judge Anne Brown was unmoved, however, and said the offence was "simply too serious" for a suspended sentence.

"This is a brazen and serious non-domestic burglary," she said.

"Whilst you did not know the precise value of the print, you obviously understood it to be very valuable."

She added: "Whilst I am sure there was a high degree of planning, this was not your plan."

However, Fraser may be eligible for immediate release due to time spent on electronic curfew.

Detective Chief Inspector Scott Mather, who led the Met's investigation, said: "Banksy's Girl With Balloon is known across the world - and we reacted immediately to not just bring Fraser to justice but also reunite the artwork with the gallery.

"The speed at which this took place is a testament to the tireless work of the flying squad officers - in total it took just four days for normality to be restored."

The 2004 artwork was part of a £1.5m collection of 13 Banksy pieces at the gallery.

Gallery manager, Lindor Mehmetaj, said it was "remarkable" for the piece to have been recovered after the theft.

The 29-year-old said: "I was completely, completely shocked, but in a very, very positive way when the Flying Squad showed me the actual artwork.

"It's very hard to put into words, the weight that comes off your shoulders."

Democrats on the House Oversight Committee initially published several emails which they said "raises questions about Trump and Epstein's relationship, Trump's knowledge of Epstein's crimes" and the president's relationship to Epstein's victims.

The White House said the "selectively leaked emails" were an attempt to "create a fake narrative to smear President Trump", who has consistently denied any involvement or knowledge about Epstein's sex trafficking operation.

Trump latest: 20,000 pages published in response to 'leak'

It prompted Republicans to retaliate by releasing more than 20,000 pages from Epstein's files and accusing Democrats of "cherry-picking" their documents.

Here's what the emails say...

What Epstein said about Trump

Three messages, dated between 2011 and 2019, are between Jeffrey Epstein and his sex trafficking co-conspirator Ghislaine Maxwell and between Epstein and author Michael Wolff.

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In the first exchange of emails, between Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell, dated 2 April 2011, Epstein wrote:

i want you to realize that that dog that hasn't barked is trump.. Virginia spent hours at my house with him ,, he has never once been mentioned. police chief. etc. im 75% there

Maxwell responded:

I have been thinking about that...

The name Virginia, refers to Virginia Giuffre, a prominent Epstein survivor who died in April and had never accused Mr Trump of wrongdoing.

Ms Giuffre made allegations of three sexual encounters with Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, who was recently stripped of his prince title, in her autobiography which was released last month - allegations Andrew has denied.

In the second exchange of emails, between Epstein and Michael Wolff, a journalist who has written several books about the Trump administration, dated 31 January 2019, Epstein wrote:

[REDACTED NAME] worked at mara lago. . she was the one that accused prince andrew. . trump said he asked me to resign, never a member ever.. of course he knew about the girls as he asked ghislaine to stop

The third email exchange, between Epstein and Wolff, dated between 15 and 16 December 2015 shows that Wolff wrote:

I hear CNN planning to ask Trump tonight about his relationship with you--either on air or in scrum afterwards.

Epstein replied:

if we were able to craft an answer for him, what do you think it should be?

Wolff responded:

I think you should let him hang himself. If he says he hasn't been on the plane or the house, then that gives you a valuable PR and political currency. You can hang him in a way that potentially generates a positive benefit for you, or, if it really looks like he could win, you could save him, generating a debt. Of course, it is possible that, when asked, he'll say Jeffrey is a great guy and has gotten a raw deal and is a victim of political correctness, which is to be outlawed in a Trump regime.

Responding to the release of emails, Mr Wolff posted a video on Instagram: "I have been trying to talk about this story for a very long time now and perhaps we're getting close to the smoking gun.

"These two men... had the closest of relationships for more than a decade."

Other messages mentioning Mr Trump were sent in 2015, a year before he won the election in 2016, and came as he was gaining momentum as a candidate.

In an email exchange with a reporter from The New York Times in December 2015, with the subject line "Trump", Epstein wrote:

have them ask my houseman about donald almost walking through the door leaving his nose print on the glass as young women were swimming in the pool and he was so focused he walked straight into the door

In the same email exchange with the reporter, Epstein said:

would you like photos of donald and girls in bikinis in my kitchen

In another email from March 2018, a person whose name has been redacted said:

It will all blow over! They're really just trying to take down Trump and doing whatever they can to do that...!

Epstein replied:

yes thx. its wild [sic]. because i am the one able to take him down

It is important to note the overall context of this email is unknown.

Andrew included in Epstein emails

In several email exchanges, Epstein refers to Andrew and a picture of him with Virginia Giuffre.

A photo emerged in 2011 of Andrew, which has become infamous, showing the former prince with his arm around Ms Giuffre, apparently taken in Ghislaine Maxwell's London home.

The former duke previously said he didn't recall meeting Ms Giuffre and claimed an image of the pair could have been doctored.

Although the name of the "girl" is redacted, Epstein appears in his email exchange to be referring to Ms Giuffre, who at the time had spoken to The Mail on Sunday, which had published the photo.

In an email to a reporter on 1 July 2011, Epstein wrote:

The girl has fled the country with an outstanding arrest warrant. The da (sic) after she accused others, said in writing that she has no credibility, she was never 15 years old working for me, her story made it seem like she first worked for trump at that age and was met by ghislaine maxwell.

Total horseshit, the daily mail paid her money, they admitted it, with the statement that it took money to coax out the truth.

Yes she was on my plane, and yes she had her picture taken with Andrew, as many of my employees have.

In a separate email to a publicist on 1 July 2011, Epstein wrote:

The girl who accused Prince Andrew can also easily be proven to be a liar.

I think Buckingham Palace would love it. You should task someone to investigate the girl Virginia Roberts, that has caused the Queen's son all this agro (sic).

I promise you she is a fraud. You and I will be able to go to ascot (sic) for the rest of our lives.

In a different email exchange in March 2011 about an inquiry from a news reporter, Epstein messaged someone listed as "The Duke", who is thought to be Andrew, and told him:

im not sure how to respond, the only person she didn't have sex with was Elvis

A reply from "The Duke" said:

Please make sure that every statement or legal letter states clearly that I am NOT involved and that I knew and know NOTHING about any of these allegations. I can't take any more of this my end.

Mandelson and Epstein talk Trump

According to the documents, Peter Mandelson, who was sacked as the UK ambassador to the US in September, was continuing his connections with Epstein in 2016.

Sir Keir Starmer dismissed him after learning about emails between him and Epstein from 2005 to 2010 - including after Epstein's conviction for soliciting a minor for prostitution.

In an exchange between Epstein and Peter Mandelson on 6 November 2016, Epstein wrote:

63 years old. . you made it

Responding to the message referring to his birthday several days before, Mr Mandelson replied:

Just. I have decided to extend my life by spending more of it in the US.

On the same day, and just before the 2016 US presidential election, Epstein then replied:

in the donald white house

Epstein went on to refer to Andrew and Mr Mandelson's partner, now husband, Reinaldo Avila da Silva:

trump/ and having agreat [sic] deal of fun. In hindsight. you were right about staying away from andrew. I was right in your staying with rinaldo [sic]

According to the documents, Mandelson responded:

Of course, donald in WH. Will he get there? Yes, without Andrew it would not have gone nuclear. Did you advise me to stay with R ? Such a handful but loyal and never embarrassing.

In a separate email from 7 March 2011, Epstein received an interview request from the BBC via his lawyer:

We are keen to explore the possibility of conducting an interview with Mr Epstein, on the subject of the stories which are circulating, however inaccurately, about both him and Prince Andrew, the Duke of York; we'd be keen to hear from Mr Epstein first hand so that the various and at times, speculative reporting which is at large in the UK press can be better
scrutinised?".

The message was forwarded to Mr Mandelson, who replied, bluntly:

No!!

In May this year, Mr Mandelson was asked by Sky News about his relationship with Epstein.

He responded: "I'm not answering any questions about him. My knowledge of him is something I regret, I wish I'd never met him in the first place."

Read more from Sky News:
Key claims by Virginia Giuffre in memoir
Ghislaine Maxwell appeals to Trump
US Congress summons Andrew

Sky News' US news partner NBC News has reached out to lawyers for Mr Wolff, Maxwell and the family of Ms Giuffre for comment.

The top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, Robert Garcia, of California, said in a statement that the released emails "raise glaring questions about what else the White House is hiding and the nature of the relationship between Epstein and the President".

Democrats on the House Oversight Committee say the emails strike "a blow against the White House's Epstein cover-up".

But White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement: "The Democrats selectively leaked emails to the liberal media to create a fake narrative to smear President Trump.

"The 'unnamed victim' referenced in these emails is the late Virginia Giuffre, who repeatedly said President Trump was not involved in any wrongdoing whatsoever and 'couldn't have been friendlier' to her in their limited interactions."

Jon Ruben, 76, of Nottinghamshire, admitted sexual assault of a child under 13, assault of a child under 13 by penetration, eight counts of child cruelty, three counts of making indecent images of children and four drugs charges.

Leicester Crown Court was told Ruben, who prosecutors said had run a holiday camp for at least 27 years, laced sweets with tranquilising drugs and attacked two children after asking youngsters to play "a sweet game".

Ruben denied a further charge of assault by penetration. Prosecutors have been given two weeks to consider if they will proceed with this charge.

Prosecutor Mary Prior KC said the charges related to a summer camp held at rented premises near a village in Leicestershire last summer.

The prosecutor told the court: "The defendant, for at least 27 years, has run a holiday camp.

"There is a long history of children feeling sick at the camp over many years."

The rented premises, Stathern Lodge, were not connected to the camp itself, the court heard, and Ruben was in charge of youngsters there, Ms Prior said.

"He made the rules," she added. "For many years he has played what he calls a sweet game with the children in which he goes into the bedrooms.

"The game is that each has to eat really sticky sweets as quickly as they can but they must chew them.

"Children have always felt ill the next day but he explained it as they were overwrought."

Ruben was remanded in custody until a further hearing at the same court on 28 November.

Temporary Detective Chief Inspector Neil Holden said: "This has been a horrific, complex and emotional investigation involving multiple young, innocent, vulnerable victims and a man who committed the vilest crimes.

"Our focus today must of course remain on the young victims and with the support of partners and dedicated family liaison officers, we have and continue to support their welfare and to ensure their safeguarding going forward."

Warning: Readers may find details in this story distressing.

Thomas Waller, 18, took advantage of his position to gain the trust of two boys in his care before exploiting them, Guildford Crown Court heard.

The teenager was working at a nursery and his responsibilities included taking children to the toilet and helping them get changed.

Sentencing him on Friday, Judge Claire Harden-Frost said it was "heartbreaking" to see the victims' parents feeling responsible for what had happened.

Waller was found guilty of rape, two counts of causing or inciting sexual activity and taking indecent photos after a trial at Staines Youth Court earlier this year.

He was sentenced to 15 years at a young offender institution, of which he must serve 10 in detention and five on licence.

In a victim impact statement, one of the victim's fathers said his son had "gathered a collection of memories that I would never wish on a human being".

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