Donald Trump's claim that the war could be over "soon" will grab headlines.
But traders don't trade on soundbites. They trade on risk.
That explains the sudden urgency from the commander-in-chief.
Ten days ago, he warned that the war could last four to six weeks.
Now, he's boasting that it could be over "very soon."
"Not this week," he told an audience in Florida, but objectives are "pretty well complete".
He listed battlefield successes - boasting 5,000 targets had been hit.
The president said he would "live with" the outcome of a report on a strike on a school.
But he tried to pin the blame for the attack, which claimed dozens of lives, elsewhere.
Trump said many countries, including Iran, use Tomahawks, a "generic" weapon.
The UK, Australia, the Netherlands, and Japan are the only other countries with Tomahawks.
Unless he's suggesting one of them carried out the strike, he has effectively implicated the US.
Read more: Evidence challenges Trump's claim
Trump's 'epic' problem
Nevertheless, he appears poised to declare victory and find an off-ramp.
But his newfound optimism lands in a space where politics and markets collide.
US crude surging to $119 per barrel, then dropping a record 4% on talk of an ending.
It's a problem for Trump that Iran had already acknowledged by mocking the military codename: "Operation Epic Fury."
"Operation Epic Mistake," the country's foreign minister posted, alongside a graphic of oil prices.
Read more from Sky News:
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Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard says it will "determine the end of the war".
In a statement, it said Tehran would not allow the export of "one litre of oil" from the region if US and Israel attacks continue.
Trump posted on Truth Social: "If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far."
For a trader sitting in London, Houston or Singapore, the question is not what Trump says but what happens on the ground.
In times of conflict, the price of a barrel speaks louder, and more truthfully, than a presidential promise of peace.
This is the frontline of the fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and it feels otherworldly.
Middle East crisis: Follow live updates
After the October 7th attacks, most people evacuated this frontier town fearing an invasion.
In the following years, it was hammered by mortars and missiles fired from Hezbollah.
And now, yet again, the air is filled with the sound of gun fire and sirens.
But next to a hollowed out hotel once popular with tourists is a pretty cafe with the doors open. Miry is stacking up the chairs after serving some young Israeli soldiers.
She's remarkably upbeat and defiant, too. This time, she believes Israel will crush Hezbollah - an Iranian proxy that casts a long shadow over this town.
Life in extremis
"The fighting feels like we're going to finish it - for once and for all," she says.
"You need to understand Hezbollah is not a community group, and they're not freedom fighters: they're a terrorist organisation putting at risk not only the Israeli people, but the Lebanese people, and people around the world."
They need to "eliminate" them, she says emphatically: "Like a cockroach."
It sounds like extreme language, but life is lived in extremis here. The rubble, the military machinery, the trail of smoke from Israeli interceptors. There's even concrete benches on a hill alongside picnic tables if you want to take a look-out over the destroyed homes across the border - the remnants of previous battles.
The latest confrontation with Hezbollah has seen fierce clashes and no let-up from either side.
And it's not just the border areas in the crosshairs. Last week, one Israeli minister said his government would turn the southern suburbs of Beirut into Gaza.
Already hundreds of thousands of Lebanese people have been displaced - an exodus unmatched in Israel.
'It's difficult to live like this'
About 20 minutes drive from Metula is the northern city of Kiryat Shimona. Once a commercial and economic hub, it's struggled to rebuild after many evacuated following October 7th.
Yamit Yanai Malul, a lawyer with two children, has spent years living with constant jeopardy.
"It's difficult to live like this because you don't know when the missile will catch you," she says.
"Maybe in the supermarket, or maybe doing something with the kids, so you are always tense."
And yet, she stays. And this time round, she's hopeful it will make a difference.
"We have a part in this war," she says.
"We don't go and run away to another country and find shelter. This is the home and we stay here. And I think we help the government just by being here."
Read more from Sky News:
Erdogan's clear message on Iran war
New evidence challenges Trump claim
That sense of patriotic duty may live on for months, even years, to come. And she'll likely need that enduring patience.
Destroying Hezbollah for good is a massive undertaking - no matter how weakened it is.
And in the meantime, it feels like a lot more could break out either side of the border and beyond - with civilians caught in the middle.
The Conservatives had pushed for the move via an amendment to the government's flagship education legislation currently going through parliament: the Children's Wellbeing and Schools Bill.
It had been backed by the House of Lords, but was defeated in the Commons on Monday night by 307 votes to 173.
Calls for a ban have gained traction after Australia became the first country in the world to enforce one back in December. Since then, other nations - including in Europe - have been flirting with the idea.
Sir Keir Starmer has been accused of "dither and delay" by announcing the UK government will consult on a possible ban, without committing to one.
In a statement after the Commons vote, the Liberal Democrats said his stance was "not good enough" and "families need concrete assurances now".
During the debate, shadow education secretary Laura Trott described the situation as an "emergency", as she cited polling which suggested 40% of children are shown explicit content on smartphones during the school day.
"No more guidance, no more consultations. Legislate, do something about it," she said.
Government leaves door open to action
Some 107 Labour MPs abstained on the amendment to the education bill, including Sadik Al-Hassan, who told the Commons parents were "locked in a daily battle that they simply cannot win alone, fighting platforms that have been specifically designed to keep children hooked".
But education minister Olivia Bailey cited concerns from children's charities that an outright ban on under-16s using social media could drive them towards "less regulated corners of the internet", or leave them "unprepared" for how to navigate the online world.
She said the government's consultation would "seek views to help shape our next steps" - which could ultimately still include banning children from platforms like Instagram and TikTok.
Read more on plans for schools:
Labour's overhaul of SEND system
Parents to lose automatic right to homeschooling
One measure MPs did back on Monday was to grant additional powers to the technology secretary, Liz Kendall, to potentially introduce such a ban in future.
She could also limit children's use of VPNs and restrict access to addictive features of apps like autoplay videos.
'Huge demand' for ban
The Children's Wellbeing and Schools Bill will now return to the House of Lords to be further considered by peers.
Lord Nash, the Conservative who proposed the amendment, has vowed to try to have it passed again. He said there's "huge demand across the country to raise the age limit and protect children".
The bill will only become law if both Houses agree the final draft.
Ministers say it is a working definition and a "tool for government and organisations to better understand, measure, prevent and address anti-Muslim hostility".
Crucially, the definition is non-statutory - meaning it is advisory and has no legal backing.
Discrimination of someone due to their religion or belief is already unlawful under the Equality Act.
Communities Secretary Steve Reed told MPs that ministers had a duty to act against record levels of hate crime against Muslims, but that "you can't tackle a problem if you can't describe it".
He also denied the definition would interfere with freedom of speech or create "blasphemy laws by the back door".
Hate crimes against Muslims reported to police in England and Wales rose by almost a fifth in the year ending March 2025, to 3,199 offences.
The figure does not include incidents reported to Metropolitan Police due to changes in its recording system.
Jewish people faced the highest rate of hate crimes, according to the government figures, with 106 incidents per 10,000 population. Muslims were second, with 12 per 10,000 population.
In February last year, the government set up a working group, led by former Tory minister Dominic Grieve, to come up with a definition of anti-Muslim hatred or Islamophobia.
But Sky News learnt in October that ministers were moving away from the word "Islamophobia" and towards "anti-Muslim hostility".
Alongside the new definition, ministers have set out an accompanying text which says freedom of speech and expression are protected by law, which includes criticising or ridiculing a belief, including Islam.
"Portraying it in a manner that some of its adherents might find disrespectful or scandalous," is also legal, the text says.
Speaking in the Commons, shadow communities minister Paul Holmes said the definition risked "hindering legitimate criticism" - which Mr Reed rejected.
"We will not do what [the Conservatives] did and stand by and simply watch while Muslim communities face targeted abuse in ways that any decent country would consider to be absolutely intolerable," he replied.
Mr Reed announced the new definition as he unveiled a wider strategy on social cohesion.
The British Muslim Trust welcomed the move, with chairman Shabir Randeree saying it would "help guide institutions that have too often been too slow or too weak in their responses to incidents a tolerant and respectful country like ours must never accept".
The government is to also appoint a special representative on anti-Muslim hostility to engage with communities and help facilitate understanding and implementation of the definition.
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Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer visited a community centre in London on Monday to speak with residents about how the government was trying to protect people from the impacts of the war in the Middle East.
He said "we mustn't let" the conflict drive apart communities in the UK, and that Muslim and Jewish communities in particular needed reassuring.
Mr Reed also told MPs in the Commons that the government was protecting Jewish communities with "record funding for security at synagogues and schools, millions of pounds to tackle antisemitism in schools and universities, new laws to stop abusive protests outside places of worship".
He added: "Today, we are going even further to tackle antisemitism in schools and colleges and in the healthcare system, and crucially, clamping down hard on the extremism which so often targets Jews first of all."
The month was marked by "extreme rainfall and widespread flooding in Western Europe and the third-lowest sea ice extent in the Arctic", the Copernicus Climate Change Service said on Tuesday.
Experts say climate change was at least partly to blame for the exceptionally wet season across Western Europe.
It saw a run of intense storms including Leonardo, Pedro, and Nils, which was described as having "uncommon strength" by French weather service Meteo-France.
France, Spain, and Portugal in Europe, and Morocco, Mozambique and Botswana elsewhere in the world saw remarkably wet conditions, leading to severe flooding that caused widespread damage and loss of life and livelihoods.
Europe's wet and warm conditions mirrored those in the UK, which saw one of its five wettest Januarys since 1890 in the southern counties of England, and the warmest February day since 2019.
Just 0.1C below landmark target
The globe's 1.49C above the estimated 1850-1900 average used to define the pre-industrial level made it the fifth-warmest February across the planet, the study said.
The target of the 2015 Paris Agreement was to keep global temperatures to less than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. The UN has warned the chance of keeping to that goal is "virtually zero", with the UK braced for a rise of at least 2C within the next 25 years.
Researchers based their latest assessment on Copernicus' own ERA5 dataset, compiled from hourly readings of climate data, which it describes as a climate research standard.
The warmest February on record was in 2024, it said.
In the Arctic, the average sea ice extent in February was 5% below, meaning it was the third-lowest on record for the month. In the Antarctic, the monthly sea ice extent was close to the monthly average.
Read more: Wettest winter on record for parts of the UK
Sharp divide in Europe's weather
Study author Samantha Burgess, the strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMRW), said there was "a really strong divide across Europe", as Scandinavia and Eastern Europe were "much colder than average", whereas the opposite conditions prevailed in most of western and Southern Europe.
Ms Burgess told Sky News the position of the polar jet stream was one of the causes, noting it "has gone further south over the winter, which is why we've had a very dim, very wet winter".
Its unusual position, combined with a series of narrow bands of very moist air, named atmospheric rivers, "led to heavy-to-extreme precipitation over western and Southern Europe. This triggered widespread flooding and landslides, particularly across Iberia and western France," the study said.
Climate change's impact
Ms Burgess said February's extreme events "highlight the growing impacts of climate change and the pressing need for global action".
It's part of our changing winter and changing seasonality, she said, with summers "getting longer, starting earlier and ending later. They're also getting more intense".
Winters, by contrast, are "getting less cold, and sometimes they're also getting shorter".
'Blocked weather pattern'
Met Office climate spokesperson Grahame Madge was less sure, saying the recent wet weather in the UK, particularly in Cornwall, which experienced the wettest winter on record, was a "blocked weather pattern over Scandinavia and an active jet stream driven by cold conditions in North America".
Mr Madge said there is "no strong evidence linking this specific weather pattern to climate change, [but] climate change is expected to lead to warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers in the UK".
'Human-caused' emissions
It's a trend that is "already being observed in rainfall records, with an increased winter rainfall", he said.
Reading University climate science professor Richard Allan said the "serious weather extremes" seen during the month were "a classic winter battleground between warm and wet versus cold and dry conditions over Europe".
"Heavy and persistent rainfall in Western Europe was further intensified by the additional moisture carried by winds from the oceans that are warmer than they would otherwise have been due to the progressive heating from human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases," he added.
Dr Michael Byrne, reader in climate science at the University of St Andrews, said the UK "is in a pretty wet part of the world and very much influenced by this warmer air, [creating] more moisture when it rains".
He warned "it's very likely we should expect more flooding events, more rainstorms, both in the winter but also in the summertime, delivering large volumes of rain in a short period of time".
It is, he said, "very much what we expect the UK to be seeing more of in the future".
Ms Burgess agreed, saying "we've got to adapt" by recognising that climate change is "here to stay", and said she remains "optimistically hopeful", pointing to a doubling in the number of cities that have adaptation measures since 2018.